Welcome to Naseer Memon's Corner

The recent floods havebeen followed by another round of uninformed debate on the need for new dams. Large dams have long been misconstrued as a solution to all Pakistan’s river water problems. The supporters of the dam lobby include a chunk of the engineering fraternity.Some of them have claimed that dams can help fight floods.

Global experience of large dams has widened the scope of this debate. Arguments abound both in favour and against large dams. Every country, river and flood is unique.As such there can be no generic prescription for flood control. 

After two weeks of ruination in the Punjab, flood water descended to Sindh in mid-September. A high flood of over 635,000 cusecs crossed the Guddu Barrage. After two fleeting high-flood surges in August, this time, a flow of over 500,000 cusecs was sustained at Guddu for several days. A surge in the water level at Guddu, subsequently increased flows at Sukkur and Kotri Barrages. The floodplain, locally called katcho was inundated and more than 175,000 people were temporarily displaced.

Sindh averted an anticipated monstrous flood of over 900,000 cusecs. Some projections of the 

aging floods have uprooted hundreds of thousands of people in Pakistan. Monsoon rains in August brought deluges from different directions. During first half of the month, Gilgit and Hunza were battered by intense rain spells on mountains that rolled down huge snow mass, boulders, mud and landslides. Scores of tourists lost their lives and hundreds were stranded in Chilas, Astore and adjoining areas for several days before being rescued. Buner, Shangla and Swat endured devastation due to abnormally high rains and flash floods in the third week of August. More than 300 people perished in these districts. 

Neither monsoons nor disasters are new to Pakistan. July to September are predictably the months of torrential rains, glacial melt, flash floods and surging rivers. Climate change has intensified their ferocity and multiplied their vagaries. Technology has equipped decision makers, as well as commoners, with a reasonable prognosis of emerging weather trends, inter alia precipitation, temperature, riverine and torrential floods and early warning on abnormal weather events. Amid all these advances, disasters continue to recur. Preparedness is of paramount importance to avert climatic 

INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate 

The country is threatened by an excruciating drought. The Advisory Committee of Indus River System Authority has estimated water shortage for April at 43 percent. The IRSA will monitor the situation on monthly basis. These shortfalls restrict canal flows and leave the croplands parched.

In the third week of March, the Pakistan Meteorological Department issued a drought alert. The projection revealed a precipitation scenario.

The country had received 40 percent less rainfall than normal in the preceding months. Sindh was

The Development Statistics of Sindh-2022 report issued by the Sindh Bureau of Statistics reveals that approximately 70 per cent of houses in rural areas are katcha. Housing data of five worst flood-hit districts in 2022 depicts abject poverty in these areas. Percentage of katcha houses in rural areas of some of the districts are: Dadu (56pc), Jamshoro (65pc), Qambar-Shahdadkot (65pc), Khairpur Mirs (51pc) and Mirpurkhas (71pc). Moreover, the report also reveals that 72pc of rural houses are just one-room structures. The recent census data of 2023 also confirms that 71.35pc of rural houses in Sindh are

WITH the approach of the monsoons, timely precaution is needed. The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has anticipated above-normal rains in the region during the season. Rainfall and temperature outlook maps from the SACOF-28 report forecast heavy rains in all the provinces and excessive temperatures in Pakistan’s snow-capped mountainous belt. This suggests looming flood conditions.

Sindh is the most vulnerable province as it is the final destination of glacial melt in 

HUMAN development is the inevitable casualty of natural disasters. The devastating blow to the health, education, drinking water, sanitation and housing infrastructure deprives people of services which constitute the pillars of human development. Pakistan, already on the lower rungs of human development, suffered a massive setback on account of the 2022 floods. The Planning Commission’s Post Disaster Need Assessment report paints a bleak picture: its preliminary estimates show that between 8.4 and 9.1 million

THE screening of development projects through the lens of climate resilience requires a paradigm shift in development planning and budgeting. The International Monetary Fund wants Pakistan to introduce this shift through the FY2024-25 budget. Prodding the ministries of finance and planning, the IMF has prescribed making budget documents more explicit on the nexus between the budget and climate-related action. It has put emphasis on advancing green budgeting, including budget tracking, publishing information on climate-related

THE fate of those affected by last year’s floods has faded from memory but the miseries of the people persist. Catastrophic events leave deep bruises. Complete healing is a complex and protracted process, while certain impacts of the disaster remain irreversible. Poverty resulting from or aggravated by such disasters is one such element that transcends generations.

The World Bank’s recent Macro Poverty Outlook estimates that poverty in Pakistan has increased in the last fiscal year due to skyrocketing food and energy prices, a struggling

WITH the monsoons approaching, there is reason to feel concerned. Preoccupied with the political melodrama, few of us recall the plight of the millions of flood-affected. Their tribulations after last year’s calamitous deluge, especially in Sindh, have not ended and the rainy season is once again looming. Although weather pundits expect a drier monsoon in southern Pakis­tan this year, climate change is all about extreme and unpredictable weather events.

Rescue and relief are the two most important pillars of any disaster-response strategy. 

RECENTLY, a report titled Pakistan flood emergency: Lessons from a continuing crisis was prepared by a collaborative group of over a dozen leading international and national humanitarian aid agencies.

It is a deeply saddening reminder that some 2.5 million people affected by floods last year are still struggling to return to normal life. The miseries of these citizens are going unnoticed, having been overshadowed by the political turmoil in the country.

Heavy rains in Balochistan at the end of June not only brought disaster to this province but certain districts of Sindh on its eastern border also received devastating flash floods.

Torrents from Balochistan entered Sindh through Khirthar hills and inundated vast areas in districts of Dadu and Shahdad Kot/Qambar. Thousands lost abodes and were marooned in deep ponds of water for several days.

After a dry and scorching July, Pakistan is in the grip of monsoon rains. Northern areas of Gilgit and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have had several spells of destructive rains. Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab have been lashed by torrential rains. Hill torrents of Koh-i-Suleman and Khirthar ranges have generated raging flows isolating dozens of villages. Based on the prognosis by Meteorological Department, the National Disaster Management Authority has been churning out weather alerts and advisories.

An update on August 13 on the NDMA website said there had been 154 deaths and 315 injuries since July 1. Around 2,234

A year after the catastrophic floods of 2022 international aid continues to arrive. In view of the estimated losses and damage of $30 billion, the inflow of international aid has been remarkably is sluggish. Despite the big gap between the need and the aid, every single dollar is valuable.

Last week, Pakistan received an assistance of CHF3 million ($3.38 million) from the government of Switzerland. The governments of Pakistan and Switzerland have signed a memorandum of understanding to improve natural disaster prevention and response in Pakistan as described in a press release of the Swiss foreign ministry.

The Economic Survey of Pakistan and the federal as well as Sindh’s provincial annual budgets are loaded with references to the 2022 floods. A large part of the budget speech of the Sindh chief minister revolved around the devastating floods of 2022 that perished lives, crops and livestock and destroyed more than two million houses and vital public infrastructure.

A day before the federal budget 2023-24, the Economic Survey of Pakistan was released. The 467-page document mentioned the floods 188 times. Last year’s sluggish economic performance was attributed mainly to the floods and political

Food inflation has beaten all past records. March 2023 witnessed a huge rise in food inflation. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported that year-on-year food inflation touched a new peak of 47 percent. This explains why people are swarming to free of cost flour distribution centres and risking their lives to grab a bag or two of the flour before the trucks are emptied by a jostling mob.

Although free food distribution has always tended to cause such behaviour, the situation has worsened following the massive losses to crops in the floods of 2022. Sindh endured a 

amage and loss to the education system is perhaps the least reckoned impact of the recent disastrous floods in Pakistan. While damage to roads, dykes, houses and the loss to the economy has been emphatically highlighted by the higher ups, not as much concern has been voiced for the loss education 3.5 million children have suffered.

Only last month, the UNICEF reported that floods have damaged or destroyed more than 26,600 schools nationwide and that at least 7,060 others are being used as temporary relief camps and shelters for the displaced. 

n the last week of October 2022, a ten year old young girl was abducted in broad day light and subjected to sexual assault in the upper class Clifton locality of southern Karachi. Her family has been displaced after floods destroyed their village. They were living on a footpath near a shrine where they could get langar food. The girl was lured into a car with the promise of rations for her family and subjected to sexual violence. The horrifying incident shocked the humanitarian workers and prompted the chief minister to order immediate arrest of the perpetrators.

Similar incidents have been reported from disaster and conflict hit areas in other parts of the world distressingly often. 

he term Build Back Better was first coined in Indonesia by the World Bank after the devastating tsunami of 2004 that wreaked havoc on several South-East Asian countries. It is especially relevant to Pakistan today. Later on, during the reconstruction after the earthquake of Central Java in 2006, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JAICA) put the same concept to work while rebuilding homes. They used earthquake resistant construction techniques and erected more than 100,000 strengthened houses in two years.

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recorded the term and mentioned the approach under their list of priority of actions.

The flood water is gradually receding from all areas of Sindh. Due to its flat topography, gravity flows are sluggish in Sindh. According to a report of the UN Satellite Centre (UNOSAT), floodwaters had receded from 32,800 square-miles to 23,200 square-miles in the first week of September. However, in Sindh where 14.6 million flood-affected individuals reside, water had drained from 815 square-miles.

Nonetheless, it is expected that within two to three weeks, the flood affected will return to their abodes. After taking a lot of flak on performance during rescue and relief, the Sindh government ought to work hard in the early recovery and rehabilitation phase.

A report issued by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) entitled, A Region at Risk: the human dimensions of climate change in Asia and Pacific, paints a bleak scenario for the countries in the Asia and Pacific region if climate change is not contained.

The report underlines a range of risks posed to the countries located in the region. A peculiar feature of the region is Himalayas that separates the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The mountain range contains nine of the ten highest peaks in the world. The highest peak on earth and the third-largest deposit of ice and snow in the world are also located in the range. Himalayas is South Asia’s 

The media remained preoccupied with frantic news coverage and discussion programmes on floods during recent weeks. The government took flak for its inability to take appropriate measures to mitigate the impact of the 2015 flood.

Peak flow in the Indus was around 700,000 cusecs yet more than 3,500 villages were affected in Sindh and Punjab afflicting a population of more than 1.3 million. Considering the design discharges of various barrages, the quantum of flow was much less than the critical threshold, yet large areas were inundated.